The wind of change: Gibbs energy of binding and infectivity evolution of Omicron BA.2.86 Pirola, EG.5.1, XBB.1.16 Arcturus, CH.1.1 and BN.1 variants of SARS-CoV-2

Abstract

A question is often asked about what tomorrow brings. During the last 4 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, this question was asked with every appearance of a new SARS-CoV-2 variant. It seems that science has an ability to offer a relatively reliable answer. Theoretical and experimental research have allowed a deep insight into structure and function of SARS-CoV-2. Moreover, the developed mechanistic models allow prediction of virus-host interactions. In August 2023, the Omicron BA.2.86 Pirola variant was detected. Taught by the bad experience from 2019 to 2023, when every new variant that appeared during SARS-CoV-2 evolution has caused a new pandemic wave, the question was raised whether this will be the case with the new variant. Research presented in this paper shows that the driving force for antigen-receptor binding of the Omicron BA.2.86 variant is lower than that of the BN.1 and similar to that of the other variants. Based on the presented research, it seems that the new variant will not be more aggressive relative to the previous variants. The movement in the number of newly infected cases in USA in the period between August and mid-October 2023 is in favor of this prediction.