Будућност алтернативних горива у транспортном сектору у Србији

Abstract

The traditional fossil fuels have several key shortcomings, limited reserves of crude oil and the fact that the process of fossilization takes millions of years, there are also problems related to environmental protection. Substitution with alternative fuels would improve sustainable development, the environment would be less pollutants and lessen international pressure occurred as result of reduced stocks of crude oil. As a potential member of the EU, Serbia will have to apply the EU directives adopted on the issue of substitution of traditional fuels by renewable. However, the real situation of the socio‐economic indicators in Serbia shows that the adopted dynamic of substitution will not be fully met, at least until 2025. The assessment in this paper is that the volume of the substitution of traditional fossil fuels with renewable fuels in Serbia will be about 2.5% by 2015, 5% by 2020 and about 10% by 2025. Which would mean consumption about 50 kt, 118 kt and 277 kt of renewable fuels in 2015, 2020 and 2025, respectively. When it takes into account the LPG as alternative fuel, the total consumption of all alternative fuels will amount to 495 Kt, 566 Kt and 727 Kt, in 2015, 2020 and 2025, respectively.

Tradicionalna fosilna goriva imaju nekoliko ključnih nedostataka, ograničene rezerve sirove nafte i činjenicu da proces fosilizacije traje milionima godina, tu su i problemi vezani za zaštitu životne sredine. Supstitucijom alternativnim motornim gorivima poboljšao bi se održivi razvoj, životna sredina bi se manje zagađivala i ublažili bi se međunarodni pritisci nastali kao posledica smanjenja zaliha sirove nafte. Realno sagledavanje socio‐ekonomskih prilika u Srbiji ukazuje da usvojena dinamika supstitucije tradicionalnih goriva obnovljivim i preuzete međunarodne obaveze neće biti u potpunosti ispunjene, bar ne do 2025. godine. Procena u ovom radu je da će obim supstitucije tradicionalnih fosilnih goriva sa obnovljivim gorivima u Srbiju biti oko 2,5% do 2015. godini, 5% do 2020. godine i oko 10% do 2025. godine. Što bi značilo potrošnju oko 50 kt, 118 kt i 277 kt obnovljivih goriva, u 2015., 2020. i 2025. godini, respektivno. Kada se uzme u obzir i TNG kao alternativno gorivo, ukupna potrošnja alternativnih goriva će iznositi 495 Kt, 566 Kt i 727 Kt, u 2015., 2020. i 2025. godine, respektivno.