Процена емисије издувних гасова моторних возила у Србији у периоду 2001-2020

Abstract

This paper presents a methodology for assessing the impact of exhaust gases from vehicles on the environment of Serbia for the period 2001-2020. The methodology is based on an estimate of consumption of petroleum products (motor gasoline, diesel and liquefied petroleum gas) using a mathematical model that takes into account several parameters, such as: economic growth for developing countries, the price of crude oil, specific fuel consumption for different types of vehicles, and the use of alternative fuels, etc. The proposed model was tested for the period 2001-2009 where is obtained correlation factor of 0.92. Based on proposed model the fuel consumption was calculated for the period 2010-2020. Assessment of pollutant emissions from vehicles for that period was based on data on the average emission of pollutants from exhaust gases per unit of fuel used. It was considered those polluting materials covered by the European emission standards: carbon monoxide, volatile hydrocarbons, nitrogen oxides and particulate materials. Based on estimates of pollutant emissions from vehicles in Serbia for the period 2001- 2020, can be said that emission is over the standards that provide by the EU regulations, which points to the need for solving this problem should give full attention.

U radu je prikazana metodologija za procenu uticaja izduvnih gasova iz motornih vozila na životnu sredinu Srbije za period 2001-2020. godine. Metodologija se bazira na proceni potrošnje naftnih derivata (motorni benzini, dizel gorivo i teþni naftni gas) pomoüu matematiþkog modela koji uzima u obzir više parametara, kao što su: privredni rast za zemlje u razvoju, cenu sirove nafte, specifiþnu potrošnju goriva za razliþite tipove vozila, kao i upotrebu alternativnih goriva, itd. Postavljeni model je testiran za period 2001-2009. godine gde je dobijen korelacioni faktor od 0,92. Na osnovu utvrÿenog modela proraþunata je potrošnja goriva za period 2010-2020. godine. Procena o emisiji zagaÿujuüih materija iz motornih vozila za navedeni period je izvršena na osnovu podataka o proseþnoj emisiji zagaÿujuüih materija iz izduvnih gasova motornih vozila po jedinici utrošenog goriva. U razmatranje su uzete one zagaÿujuüe materije koje su obuhvaüene Evropskim emisionim standardima: ugljen monoksid, isparljivi ugljovodonici, azotni oksidi i þestiþne materije. Na osnovu procene o emisiji zagaÿujuüih materija iz motornih vozila u Srbiji za period 2001-2020. godine, može se konstatovati je emisija iznad standarda koje predviÿaju EU propisi, što ukazuje na potrebu da rešavanju ovog problema treba što pre posvetiti punu pažnju.